“The Democratic Party and everything that they stand for is so pro abortion, pro homosexual, pro gun control. And I’m a Kansan. We are conservative.” This was the dramatic opening of the 2008 film, “What’s a Matter with Kansas?” and brash as this statement may be, for decades now this is how much of the public has viewed Kansas, as a deep red conservative stronghold. But what if all that is coming to an end? What if we are on the brink of a purple Kansas?

“Kansas elections are just very unstable,” Clay Wirestone, Opinion Editor for the Kansas Reflector said. “They’re very hard to predict because we’re a small population state. There’s not a lot of polling, and there’s not a lot of transparency all the time about what’s going on in Kansas elections. So really anything can happen and does.”

For the average voter here in the sunflower state, purple Kansas is quite far-fetched; the state itself has not voted a democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson back in 1964 and has only ever elected three democratic senators in its entire history, with only one of them having served more than a single term in congress. That makes modern victories like that of Democratic governor Laura Kelly, and U.S. Representative Sharice Davids all the more interesting. 

According to the Census, from 2000 to 2022 JoCo had an increase of population by 36.2 percent. By comparison, Sedgwick County which includes all of Wichita only saw a 15.8 percent increase during the same period. Also unlike Sedgwick County, JoCo has notably shifted from being the red county it was to a county that has voted in majority for both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris these past two presidential elections. JoCo’s population is not only growing, but its also voting more and more Democratic.

“I think voters in Johnson County actually hold a tremendous amount of power in terms of how the state government is set up and in terms of what the center of gravity is there,” Wirestone said. 

JoCo has more and more been swaying statewide elections. For example after the overturning of Roe v. Wade Kansas had ballot measures to change its state constitution to remove the right to an abortion and give the state congress power to ban abortion in the state. The measure, which was only brought to vote after the Republican congress passed a veto proof bill attempting to create a strong anti-abortion law, lost with 59 percent voting against the amendment. This blowout election was especially noticeable in JoCo where only 79,818 voted in favor to remove abortion and 174,933 voted against it. Thirty-two percent of all votes against the amendment came from JoCo. 

Democrat Laura Kelly’s narrow wins in both 2016 and 2022 both were due to clear support in JoCo and Wyandotte County. In 2016 the two counties provided 35 percent of her total vote and in 2022 they provided 36 percent. The Kansas City suburbs have turned issues like abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education funding into election deciding topics in Kansas with Governor Kelly running and winning on these topics. While neighboring states like Missouri and Oklahoma were passing bills banning gender-affirming care for minors, Kansas never did due to a veto Governor Kelly made in April 2024. 

“So overall, the demographic trends you see in Kansas remind me a lot of what you see in some states like Georgia, which is you have kind of a predominantly kind of rural red state or reliably conservative state,” Wirestone said. “But in Georgia, you know, you have that Atlanta area and that Atlanta metro, which is growing so much that it’s essentially changing the politics of the entire state.”

Wirestone is not alone in believing this.

“[Johnson] County annoys a lot of the people in the rest of the state because its population grew so fast and just in the last 10 years, it’s now bigger than Wichita,” said Thomas Frank political analyst in the 2008 movie, “What’s a Matter with Kansas.” “It’s the biggest. It’s not a city. It’s just many little suburbs, but taken as one, it’s bigger than the biggest city in the state. And it’s just a suburb, for God’s sake.”

Though this northeastern expansion is most prevalent in JoCo, other counties such as Wyandotte, Douglass, Shawnee, and Riley have all shifted to liberal majorities over the past 20 years mostly due to increased population in the KC suburbs, Lawrence, Topeka, and Manhattan. It should not be ignored that these cities include the three largest colleges in the state. The youth vote can have a massive say in the results of elections.

“I think in JoCo certainly, and in surrounding communities in this northeast section of Kansas, young voters could play a tremendous role if they really wanted to turn out,” Wirestone said. 

Despite the massive sway power of the youth vote in cultivating a purple Kansas, according to a recent Harvard poll, only 49 percent of Americans aged 18 to 29 voted in the 2024 election. Down a full 8 percent from 2020. 

“It was my first time,” said Noah Panjada, a student and member of JCCC’s student theater said “It’s really cool to have my voice heard and be able to be performing my civic duty. So I really voted, not just for me, but for the people I care about.”

However, not every student was so eager to vote. A student who goes by Liberty, informed me that they voted just for extra credit in a class. Even with some students who were more passionate about voting there seemed to be this recurring thought.

“People want to be happy, right? People want prices to be lower. People want access to things for themselves and for others, and I respect that.” Walker Everett, an honors student, said “It’s whatever the people want, I guess. I’m just one vote.”

Though Everett did vote, this idea of your vote only being a ‘drop in the bucket’ was a major disincentive for voting among college students. Another factor for the low turnout comes from not being active in current events with student Maxwell Mulwa saying they “don’t really watch the news” and that’s why they choose against voting. 

“Mostly it was my parents,” Eliann Romero said of why he voted. “They’re politically aware of what’s going on in the world. They’re trying to force me into that. I don’t really. I try to stay away from that. It’s hard to get the right information out there. So I kind of just stay away from that and let the actual people know what they’re talking about talk.” 

The youth vote is the key to a purple Kansas. Being able to overcome these barriers of getting younger Kansans and getting them interested in politics, engaged in the news, involved in local politics could be the push that Kansas needs to be like Georgia or Nevada. A push for competitive national elections in the state. 

“The question is really not will Kansas become purple? Why doesn’t Kansas look purple now? I think it’s certainly possible in Kansas long term here, and I’m talking 10, 20 years and such. It’s because it’s not a question of the whole state becoming purple,” Wirestone said. “Just even looking at Kansas now, it is not as red as people believe. Forty-one percent of the presidential vote went to Harris. It’s only down 1 percent point from four years ago when it was 42 percent for Biden. That’s a substantial number of people. That’s four out of every 10 voters.”

By Cash Navarro